I just read one of the most sobering views on the economy in a while.  Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor under Clinton, posted his views that the old economy as we know it is *NEVER* coming back.  Regretfully I concur.    

Mr. Reich correctly points out the major problem with a recovery scenario..

 In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.

Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must.

Reich views those that imagine a U or V shaped recovery as dillusional... and I, again, have to agree.  In my industry junior people are getting laid off or hoping to get a 5-20 percent pay cut as an alternative to losing their job. I don't think it will be that long before senior people take similar hits.  Flat is the new "up".  How do we get our selves out of this?  I do not know.  What I do know is that the sillyness of the .com bubble and the housing bubble will not return.  That is probably healthy, but it also means that we are sobering up and that's hard.  It's the detox economy.  We're on the wagon and will not have any artificial highs.  Long term this is very important but the process we are going to grind through over the next 2-5 years is going to be a real struggle. 

 What does Reich think?

My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.

The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.

His full post is here

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Narnia mentioned David Shirgley in a post below. I thought I would post this little ditty and link to his site. Fascinating.

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J.K. Rowling Speaks at Harvard Commencement from Harvard Magazine on Vimeo.

Article here. 

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It's an interesting concept and one that I am working on personally developing.  Sometimes we get stuck in jobs, role and appearances and we hang on.  We hang on for dear life.  We do so because (1) the money is way too good; (2) fear; (3) resistance to change - see (2); (4) lack of a future plan.

What's worse, being succesful but constrained in your conduct and behavior - or perhaps temporarily "unscuccesfful" but with no downside and unlimited upside.  Sometimes firing yourself can be a great release.  

We are coopted by our success and fear of failure in many cases.  Sometimes failure can be our biggest success.  

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On the ex's FB page.  Wonder if this was a message.....oy.

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From the author of the 4 Hour Work Week.  He's a pretty impressive guy and these are pretty fantastic tools for taking a leap.

More good thoughts on how to practice stoicism here.

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Elsa Martinelli, born Elsa Tia, on 3 August 1932 or 13 January 1935, according to different sources^[1][2], in Grosseto, Tuscany, is an Italian actress and former fashion model.

Martinelli moved to Rome with her family and in 1953 was discovered by Roberto Capucci who introduced her to the world of fashion. She became a model and began playing small roles in films. She appeared in Claude Autant-Lara's Le Rouge et le noir (1954), but her first important film role came the following year withThe Indian Fighter opposite Kirk Douglas. Douglas claims to have spotted her on a magazine cover and hired her for his production company, Bryna Productions. In 1956 she won the Silver Berlin Bear Award for Best Actress at the Berlin International Film Festival for playing the title role in Mario Monicelli'sDonatella.

Since then, she has divided her time between Europe and the USA and has appeared in such fims as Four Girls in Town (1957) with George Nader, Manuela (film) (1957) with Trevor Howard, Prisoner of the Volga (1959) with John Derek, Hatari! (1962) with John Wayne, The Pigeon That Took Rome (1962) withCharlton Heston, The Trial with Anthony Perkins, The V.I.P.s (1963) with Orson Welles, Rampage (1963) with Robert Mitchum, Woman Times Seven (1967) with Lex Barker. In Candy (1968), her co-stars were Charles Aznavour, Marlon Brando, Richard Burton, James Coburn, Walter Matthau and Ringo Starr.

Martinelli was first married to Count Franco Mancinelli Scotti di San Vito, by whom she has a daughter, Cristiana Mancinelli (born 1956), also an actress. She later was married to the Paris Match photographer and 1970s furniture designer Willy Rizzo.

 

This is - by the way - photo 5 of 5 from Baltimore. 

 

More photos here  

http://images.google.com/images?sourceid=gmail&rls=gm&q=elsa%20martinelli&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wi

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Hot. 4 of 5 of the Baltimore photos.

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